Santastic

Can’t think of much better word to describe the Twins’ offseason, given the Santana trade.  Now that pitchers and catchers have reported, it feels like a good time to evaluate the big changes in the roster.  Lets revisit last year’s lineup, based on the most games played at each position.

• C: Joe Mauer (91 games at C)
• 1B: Justin Morneau (143)
• 2B: Luis Castillo (85)
• 3B: Nick Punto (10
• SS: Jason Bartlett (13
• LF: Jason Kubel (84)
• CF: Torii Hunter (155 )
• RF:  Michael Cuddyer (140)
• DH: Kubel (35), Jeff Cirillo (24), Jason Tyner (22) 
• SP: Johan Santana (33), Carlos Silva (33), Boof Bonser (30), Scott Baker (23), Matt Garza (15)
• RP:  Pat Neshek (74), Matt Guerrier (73), Joe Nathan (68), Juan Rincon (63), Dennys Reyes (50)

 Contrast that list with what figures to be the lineup to start the season.

• C: Joe Mauer
• 1B: Justin Morneau
• 2B: Brendan Harris (please, no Punto)
• 3B: Mike Lamb
• SS: Adam Everett
• LF: Delmon Young
• CF: Some combination of Carlos Gomez, Jason Pridie, or Craig Monroe
• RF:  Michael Cuddyer
• DH: Jason Kubel
• SP: Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Livan Hernandez, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowley
• RP:  Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes

A closer look at the changes:

•  2B:  An old-for-young swap that might result in more power at the position.  Harris hit .286/.343/.434 last year in his first full season, while the veteran Castillo was .301/.362/.359.
• 3B:  This is an upgrade that pretty much everyone has to be happy to about.  Sure, Lamb is old, and he’s not a great defensive player, but he should still be able to wave a bat (.289/.366/.453 last year).  Oh, and another plus is that he isn’t the atrocious Nick Punto, who probably ranks in the top five on the “Professional Athletes Least Likely To Have Anyone Be Happy To Recognize Them In Their Home Cities”.  Hopefully, the new shortstop will help help cover Lamb’s defensive liabilities.  Which brings us to…
• SS:  Everett is the classic steady glove, no-hit shortstop, and like Lamb he’s certainly not a long-term solution at his position.  Losing Bartlett could hurt.  I liked him, but at least Bill Smith got something in return for him, bringing us to…
• LF:  Delmon Young will be the most exciting new Twin to watch, and trading for him got Smith mostly good reviews.  You have to give Smith credit for have the cojones to make trades like this.  Of course, if Young strikes out 800 times this season  and bludgeons an umpire (plate discipline is an issue, potentially along with, uh, sanity), then Smith will have traded good young pitching and a promising shortstop for a lunatic free-swinger.  Here’s hoping Young stays in control.
• CF:  Insert question mark.  As things stand now, it looks as if the Twins are going to let the young guys (Gomez, Pridie, Monroe) battle it out for the job in spring training, but it’s probable that Gomez is the heir apparent–and he better be, if the Santana trade is going to pay off.  No matter who gets the job, Hunter’s shoes are unlikely to be filled this season.
• SP:  (deep breath)  The best pitcher in baseball (Santana) is gone, and a key second-tier starter (Silva) was lost to free agency.  The presumptive ace in 2008 (Liriano) is returning from major surgery and will be late to report because of visa issues stemming from a DUI, the number two starter’s name is “Boof”, the number three (Hernandez) is a chunky 33-year-old who has a million innings under his belt and has pitched in the inferior-hitting NL for his entire career…that’s some issues.  On the other hand, Liriano is reportedly in good shape, and there are some promising arms waiting in the wings that will probably see some MLB action this season.  I have high hopes for Slowley’s development this year.  Hernandez, the only “real” veteran starter, could provide some nice breaks for the bullpen, at least until until his arm falls off.  
• Bullpen:  No incredibly major changes, although it’ll be nice to get Crain back from surgery.  A few new faces with some talent could start the season here.  I assume Nathan will be traded at the deadline, or when the Tigers open a 20-game lead in the division, or during the traditional Yankee media panic after they drop a few games behind the Red Sox.  Whatever comes first.

It’s not strictly fair to directly compare the two lineups, since the Twins got or will get prospects not appearing on these lists in exchange for Santana, Silva, and Hunter.  Nevertheless, I think it’s pretty clear that the 2008 team won’t be as good as the 2007 team.  I’m not anticipating them being very competitive in the division unless Young and/or Kubel explodes, one of the young pitchers emerges as Very Good, there’s some decent production from Lamb, and there aren’t any significant injuries.  In fact, if the Tigers stay healthy, it’s doubtful that the Twins will be a serious contender before 2010 (which seems to be Smith’s Grand Plan, especially with the new stadium opening that year).  Should be interesting to see how the new talent performs.