Can’t think of much better word to describe the Twins’ offseason, given the Santana trade. Now that pitchers and catchers have reported, it feels like a good time to evaluate the big changes in the roster. Lets revisit last year’s lineup, based on the most games played at each position.
C: Joe Mauer (91 games at C)
1B: Justin Morneau (143)
2B: Luis Castillo (85)
3B: Nick Punto (10
SS: Jason Bartlett (13
LF: Jason Kubel (84)
CF: Torii Hunter (155 )
RF: Michael Cuddyer (140)
DH: Kubel (35), Jeff Cirillo (24), Jason Tyner (22)
SP: Johan Santana (33), Carlos Silva (33), Boof Bonser (30), Scott Baker (23), Matt Garza (15)
RP: Pat Neshek (74), Matt Guerrier (73), Joe Nathan (68), Juan Rincon (63), Dennys Reyes (50)
Contrast that list with what figures to be the lineup to start the season.
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Brendan Harris (please, no Punto)
3B: Mike Lamb
SS: Adam Everett
LF: Delmon Young
CF: Some combination ofCarlos Gomez, Jason Pridie, or Craig Monroe
RF: Michael Cuddyer
DH: Jason Kubel
SP: Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Livan Hernandez, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowley
RP: Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes
A closer look at the changes:
2B: An old-for-young swap that might result in more power at the position. Harris hit .286/.343/.434 last year in his first full season, while the veteran Castillo was .301/.362/.359.
3B: This is an upgrade that pretty much everyone has to be happy to about. Sure, Lamb is old, and he’s not a great defensive player, but he should still be able to wave a bat (.289/.366/.453 last year). Oh, and another plus is that he isn’t the atrocious Nick Punto, who probably ranks in the top five on the “Professional Athletes Least Likely To Have Anyone Be Happy To Recognize Them In Their Home Cities”. Hopefully, the new shortstop will help help cover Lamb’s defensive liabilities. Which brings us to…
SS: Everett is the classic steady glove, no-hit shortstop, and like Lamb he’s certainly not a long-term solution at his position. Losing Bartlett could hurt. I liked him, but at least Bill Smith got something in return for him, bringing us to…
LF: Delmon Young will be the most exciting new Twin to watch, and trading for him got Smith mostly good reviews. You have to give Smith credit for have the cojones to make trades like this. Of course, if Young strikes out 800 times this season and bludgeons an umpire (plate discipline is an issue, potentially along with, uh, sanity), then Smith will have traded good young pitching and a promising shortstop for a lunatic free-swinger. Here’s hoping Young stays in control.
CF: Insert question mark. As things stand now, it looks as if the Twins are going to let the young guys (Gomez, Pridie, Monroe) battle it out for the job in spring training, but it’s probable that Gomez is the heir apparent–and he better be, if the Santana trade is going to pay off. No matter who gets the job, Hunter’s shoes are unlikely to be filled this season.
SP: (deep breath) The best pitcher in baseball (Santana) is gone, and a key second-tier starter (Silva) was lost to free agency. The presumptive ace in 2008 (Liriano) is returning from major surgery and will be late to report because of visa issues stemming from a DUI, the number two starter’s name is “Boof”, the number three (Hernandez) is a chunky 33-year-old who has a million innings under his belt and has pitched in the inferior-hitting NL for his entire career…that’s some issues. On the other hand, Liriano is reportedly in good shape, and there are some promising arms waiting in the wings that will probably see some MLB action this season. I have high hopes for Slowley’s development this year. Hernandez, the only “real” veteran starter, could provide some nice breaks for the bullpen, at least until until his arm falls off.
Bullpen: No incredibly major changes, although it’ll be nice to get Crain back from surgery. A few new faces with some talent could start the season here. I assume Nathan will be traded at the deadline, or when the Tigers open a 20-game lead in the division, or during the traditional Yankee media panic after they drop a few games behind the Red Sox. Whatever comes first.
It’s not strictly fair to directly compare the two lineups, since the Twins got or will get prospects not appearing on these lists in exchange for Santana, Silva, and Hunter. Nevertheless, I think it’s pretty clear that the 2008 team won’t be as good as the 2007 team. I’m not anticipating them being very competitive in the division unless Young and/or Kubel explodes, one of the young pitchers emerges as Very Good, there’s some decent production from Lamb, and there aren’t any significant injuries. In fact, if the Tigers stay healthy, it’s doubtful that the Twins will be a serious contender before 2010 (which seems to be Smith’s Grand Plan, especially with the new stadium opening that year). Should be interesting to see how the new talent performs.
Sometimes people do or say things that are utterly hilarious, but only in an “Um…you’re not serious, are you?” way.
I’d say that Bob Sansevere’s recent Red Sox-Twins trade proposal qualifies. This has been dealt with elsewhere already, but here it is again:
[Raising head from desk] Yes, this is what passes for sports journalism in Minnesota these days. The most entertaining aspect of this proposal is that Carlos Silva is a free agent. But let’s just ignore that for a second, and assume that he could be traded. Probably the second most entertaining aspect is that if you compare the current value of just the two closers, Nathan and Papelbon, everybody would value Papelbon over Nathan. But let’s just ignore that, and assume that they would cancel each other out. What’s left is Santana and Silva for Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lester, and Buchholz. That’s still ridiculous. Gee, I wonder why this hasn’t happened yet? Maybe the Twins could sweeten the deal by throwing in Boof Bonser in exchange for Manny and Ortiz.
Bob Sansevere, if you’re not familiar, is one of the high-profile columnists for the St. Paul Pioneer Press. So this is a guy who makes a presumably good living writing about sports, yet obviously doesn’t bother to pay attention to what’s actually going on in baseball before he comments on it. This little blurb has to place him in Bill Walton territory, doesn’t it? Bob, if you ever want to be taken seriously again, I suggest admitting that you came up with this idea after smoking a particularly potent batch of crack.
You might think that GM Kevin McHale’s quest to destroy the T-Wolves reached its high point with the infamous Joe Smith fiasco. But no. He’s decided to trade the only reason I was looking forward to this season at all: Ricky Davis. That’s the Ricky Davis. Consider what he brings to the table: athleticism, insanity, dunks, insanity, a little scoring, explosiveness, and insanity. Oh, and also insanity.
Now? Ricky’s gone, and in exchange we a conditional pick and some expiring contracts, with the added bonus of watching Antoine Walker’s fat corpse lumber up and down the court for a year or so. When you have a world class guy like Ricky Davis, you don’t give him up to the Heat for anything less than…oh, let’s say 6 consecutive first-rounders and Wade!
Here’s a taste of what Wolves fans will be missing.
The dunk over Steve Nash. Not so much for the dunk itself, but for the celebration afterward (this video doesn’t last long enough to give it justice).
The greatest near-triple-double ever. The best part might be how DeShawn Stevenson decks Ricky once he realizes what’s going on. And Jerry Sloan’s face is priceless.
After watching the MLB division series and the first few LCS games on TV, some things are obvioius: Eric Gagne will never be trusted again in a big spot in 2007; “FrankTV” will be atrocious; and Tony Gwynn is a large man.
Other things, like the following mysteries, aren’t so obvious.
1. FOX is using the Transformers logo as a transition between replays.
The Transformers movie is due out on DVD soon. Apparently whoever’s in charge of marketing that release decided it would be a great idea to pay FOX money to use the logo as a replay transition that appears for about 0.2 seconds at a time. My question is, if there’s going to be a movie logo in a replay transition, couldn’t it be a Terminator movie? Wouldn’t it be cooler to have Schwarzenegger’s “Your clothes. Give them to me.” line in between replays?
2. Tim McCarver and the FOX crew’s incredible insight on multi-run innings.
Heres the extent of their analysis: A lead-off home run is more likely to lead to a multi-run inning than a lead-off walk. McCarver and Joe Buck think this is somehow a noteworthy and surprising result. Right. Let’s think about this. If a lead-off home run occurs, you are effectively starting the inning again with the next batter, except that one run has already been scored. So any additional runs scored in that inning will automatically make it a multi-run inning. If a lead-off walk occurs, a big inning is one possibility, but there’s no guarantee that any runs will be scored, much less more than one. I wonder what other breathtaking stats the crack FOX researchers have come up with. This just in–it’s harder to hit a 99 mph fastball than an 88 mph fastball!
3. Kenny Lofton’s curtain call
In Game 3 of the ALCS, Kenny Lofton hit a two-run home run in the early innings. He made a curtain call. Was it justified? Inappropriate curtain calls are one of my pet peeves; I’ll try to elaborate on this topic later. I think it’s kind of borderline, but Lofton gets a little leniency given that it’s the playoffs, Cleveland hasn’t had this kind of postseason excitement in a long time, he’s old, he’s got history with Cleveland, and he’s roided up playing amazingly.
4. Joe Torre’s status
MLB doesn’t like it when teams generate major news stories that would detract from the on-field competition during the postseason. I wonder if Torre will be fired/”resign” from the Yankees’ managerial job shortly after the World Series. Then again, Steinbrenner’s history concerning things like “rules” wouldn’t exactly be described as reverent, so it’s entirely possible that he would pull the trigger beforehand if he really wanted to.
5. Manny Ramirez needs a better home run celebration
His thing at the moment is to stand at the plate with his arms raised to the heavens as he admires his home run for several seconds before dragging himself around the bases. That alone has been enough to irritate opposing players and fans. Yeah, we all know this is Manny being Manny. The thing is, everyone already knows he’s insane. He long ago reached the point where as long as he can hit, anything he does short of assault is just going to be written off as “Manny being Manny.” Why not push it further? I’d like to see him involve his bat more in his celebrations. Maybe carry it around the bases with him and dance with it or something.
Okay, so the LCS has already started, making any “preview” written at this point a baldfaced lie. But it’d be lame to say “LCS View” instead of “LCS Preview,” so I’m sticking to the Preview wording. Don’t like it? Go here. Anyways, I think I’ll write a rolling “preview” in a wave of posts as the series go on, then claim it really was a preview and that I’m just that awesome.
The ALCS is about 1 million times more appealing to me at the moment. That’s right, approximately 1 million. Reasons: a.) The stakes are higher because it’s very important that the Red Sox lose so that our chances of having to through another year of “OMG the Sawks WOn i’m going to buy a PINK HAT!1!!11!!” again, or having to deal with Jason Varitek and Curt Schilling appearing on 75,000 talk shows, are reduced. 2.) The pitching matchups in the ALCS are better than what the NLCS can provide. d.) The possibility of another bug swarm at Jacobs Field with Papelbon on the mound. %.) The legendary mystique of the D-backs and Rockies franchises. Oh, wait. Arizona couldn’t even sell out its home games. And whoever is in charge of the PA system there seems to play the Cha-Cha Slide an excessive number of times. Yikes. z.) No matter the outcomes of the ALCS and NLCS, does anyone honestly think that the World Series will be more exciting than the ALCS?
On to predictions. Colorado’s on an impressive–very impressive–streak right now, but I wonder what will happen if they lose a game or two. It feels like they could completely implode if they lose their momentum. Has anyone ever written something like, “This team has to sweep or they’ll lose?” Does that even make sense? They’re on their way though–after winning Game 1, they’re up 2-1 late in Game 2. Hmm, I predict that they’ll win this series in 6!
Cleveland’s another feel-good story. They never won it all despite dominating their division for a number of years in the ’90s, and they’re the underdogs going up against Boston’s Fisher Price version of the Evil Empire (the Yankees being the Real Deal Evil Empire). You have to hand it to the Red Sox–they could have been the darlings of baseball for a decade, but they blew it in an orgy of over-the-topness after the ‘04 World Series and have reached the point where they rival the Yankees for the nation’s Most Detested Team award. Typical. However bad the karma of the Red Sucks Nation, the nagging feeling of the possibility of “we’re happy to have gotten this far” syndrome is making me suspicious about the Indians, so I’m going with the Sox in 5. Plus the Sox dominated in Game 1 against Sabathia (rolling preview, remember? I’m a genius).
Another legend is buried under a steroids / performance-enhancing drugs avalanche. This time it’s Marion Jones. In the wake of her admission, have we now officially reached the point where no athlete under suspicion can be trusted? A few years ago, when allegations against Jones surfaced, there was no “proof,” but if you put any weight in the saying “where there’s smoke, there’s fire,” well, let’s just say visibility was at a minimum. But in the face of Jones’ vehement denials, her Olympic medals that she brought back to America, and her Colleen Haskell (remember her?)-esque sweetheart appeal, the smoke cleared somewhat. If Jones was lying, then can you really put a whole lot of stock in, say, what Floyd Landis has to say?
Up to this point, the ‘roids cloud (in a media-frenzy sense) has hovered pretty much exclusively over meathead dudes that never had that much credibility to begin with. Barry Bonds? Please. Mark McGwire? Used andro, associated with Jose Canseco, what did you expect? Jason Giambi consistently looks like he lives in a trashy greasepit, Jeremy Giambi is an idiot (THE PLAY WAS IN FRONT OF YOU! YOU SAW WHAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN! WHY WOULDN’T YOU SLIDE??!!), and Raphael Palmiero has a mustache. And he was endorsing “performance enhancers” anyway, in Viagra form.
Now? Jones has pretty much opened the door for any athletes with even a whisper of steroids swirling around them to be instantly perceived as guilty, no matter how credible they appear. She’s ruined cheating for everyone.
It’s game 4 of the Yankees-Indians ALDS. In the sixth, Cleveland is up 6-1. Chien-Ming Wang couldn’t get out of the second inning. And the sword of Damocles is inching closer and closer to Joe Torre’s neck.
How much confidence does Torre have in his pitching staff? The Yankees’ Game 1 starter (you know, usually the marquis guy on the staff) fell apart–twice. They put an overpaid 783-year-old man with health issues who hadn’t pitched in a long time on the mound in a must-win Game 3, with predictable results. Then, in the same Game 3, Torre felt compelled to use his two best relievers to protect a five-run lead. Think about that; if Torre won’t use the modest elements of his pen when up five runs, when will he?
The whole Yankee strategy for winning the series (call it Torreball) seems to be
1. Pray that the loaded lineup can overcome above-average playoff pitching.
2. Hope that at least one starter can put together a quality start or two.
3. Avoid most of the bullpen like the plague and ride Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera.
In this series, Andy Pettite has come through with #2; unfortunately, he started Game 2 and not Game 1, making him available only if a Game 5 is forced. The offense (#1) hasn’t been there as much, and even Derek Jeter has turned into a double-play machine.
Doesn’t it feel like the Yankees have aged a lot since the end of the regular season? Aside from Pettite’s start and Johnny Damon’s Game 3 home run, they haven’t put together much to cheer about. With the pitching being what it is, I’d be surprised if they put together much of a playoff run, even if they manage to claw their way back into this game.
How easy is it to string together a bunch of incoherent thoughts about sports? I’m trying to find out. If you go to the trouble of keeping up with me, always remember: I’m wrong about this stuff about 90 percent of the time. My goal is to push the number to closer to 85 percent. Still, if you remember one thing while reading, remember that.
